Today is Quadruple Witching. The market may be near the end of a decline. Here are the key signals to watch:
Stage 1: Morning (9:30–12:00) — Shakeout
• Gap down open: Check if major indexes open sharply lower, ideally below the 200-day moving average or recent support.
• High volume: In the first two hours, volume should reach 1.5–2× the 30-day average.
• Panic headlines: News widely calling it the “worst week” or predicting lower prices. Extreme pessimism is often a contrary signal.
Stage 2: Midday / Afternoon (12:00–15:00) — Watch smart money
• VIX divergence: When the S&P 500 or NASDAQ Composite makes a new intraday low, does the VIX fail to make a new high? A lower high in VIX suggests fear is fading.
• Sector rotation: Even if the market is down, are some sectors turning up or showing relative strength?
• Market breadth stabilizes: If the index drops another 0.5% but the number of declining stocks does not increase, selling may be becoming localized.
Stage 3: Closing Hour (15:00–16:00) — Key moment
• MOC imbalance: Watch Market on Close orders. If there is a large sell imbalance but the index holds up or rises, it may mean institutions are absorbing the selling.
• Late squeeze: Short sellers may cover before the weekend, pushing prices up in the last 15 minutes.
Stage 4: Confirmation (Next Monday, Mar. 23)
A bottom needs confirmation on the next trading day.
If Monday opens higher and keeps rising, and Friday’s low is not retested, supply may have been cleared and the bottom confirmed.
Tips: When others panic, how do we find which sectors and stocks to buy? This is what VQF does — near the end of a drop, it uses multiple time windows to track the strongest sectors since the market opened today. Welcome to join us!
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