Today was the FOMC meeting. For the main headlines, see the attached card for a quick summary.
Powell stepped on the macro gas pedal — clearly no rate hikes and a focus on jobs. After QQQ held the key level at 622, price moved higher. From a Volume Profile view, price seems to have entered a “fast lane” to the upside.
Let me briefly explain this very useful idea of Volume Profile in simple terms:
If you see price + volume on the right as a traffic map:
1. Thick areas (high volume): Like traffic jams. Buyers and sellers trade a lot here. Price gets stuck and moves slowly (for example, 622).
2. Thin areas (low volume): Like highways. There was little past trading, so there is little resistance and little support. Once price enters, it often moves very fast.
So what is the situation today?
• Breakout: QQQ cleared the “traffic jam” at 622.
• Fuel: Powell’s more dovish tone added fuel.
• Path: Price is now in the thin area between 622–635. With no heavy supply above (no traffic), the path of least resistance is a fast move toward 635.
⚠️ Key risk: watch for a false breakout (bull trap)
In trading, the biggest risk often hides in shared optimism. A counter view is needed:
If price cannot hold above 622 and falls back below it, this would form the classic Volume Profile pattern called “push above and fail.” It’s like police realizing the fast car on the highway is actually a stolen one.
1. Bull trap: FOMO buyers who chased the move get trapped. Stop losses can create strong selling pressure.
2. Elevator down: Thin areas work both ways. If support fails, price can drop through the zone just as fast — like an elevator — down to around 612, where liquidity sits.
3. Macro failure: A break below 622 would mean fear of recession beats the joy of rate cuts. (Powell also said downside risks to jobs have risen too fast.)
Stay with price action.
From now through 12/15, the most important level to watch is this already-tested “crowded gate” at 622.
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