Easing tensions + Nvidia earnings drove today's market. Stocks rose sharply on Iran ceasefire hopes, closing near session highs. Then Nvidia delivered blowout results.
1/ Market Overview
· SPY $741.25 (+1.02%), 1.1% below all-time high $749.53
· QQQ $713.15 (+1.66%), closed at session high
· IWM $279.87 (+2.52%) — real breadth, small caps lead
· 10-yr yield 4.574% (-9.5bp), intraday low 4.56%
· VIX 17.45 (-3.38%), low 17.13; June futures 20.05, contango +2.60
2/ Sector Rotation
· Cyclicals surge: XLY +2.53%, XLK +2.25%, XLF +1.10%
· Defensives lag: XLP -0.66%, XLV -0.13%
· XLE -2.43% as oil plunges (WTI $98.46, -5.46%)
· Risk-on wins today.
3/ Options & Flows – SPY
· $700 June put sell: 2,793 contracts (bullish) = put selling = support
· $770 Jan 2027 LEAPS: 502 contracts (bullish)
4/ Key Movers & Nvidia
· NVDA close $223.47 (+1.30%), market cap $5.4T
· After hours 4:52pm $221.97 (-0.67%) — choppy
· Earnings: revenue $81.6B (+85% YoY), GAAP EPS $2.39, data center $75.2B (+92%)
· Q2 guide $91B ±2%
· Dividend raised from $0.01 to $0.25/quarter, new $80B buyback
· All beats, but small dip after hours — for a $5.4T giant, "great" was already priced in.
5/ Today's Narrative
Trump says Iran war may "end soon" → oil down $5.69 → yields drop ~10bp → full risk-on. Nvidia's blowout results confirm AI capex story, but after-hours drop shows: market had already priced in "excellence".
6/ After Hours & Tomorrow
· NVDA weakness after hours is a question: will it drag tech open, or buyback/dividend signal win? Market reads Q2 guide $91B closely.
· Oil below $100 keeps rate tailwind
· SPY resistance $749.53 ATH, support $737-740
· QQQ target $722 ATH
📌 Summary
Iran easing + oil crash + Nvidia beat — risk-on wins a round. But a $5.4T giant dipping after hours reminds us: expectations ran ahead of reality. Tomorrow, watch tech vs. bonds tug-of-war.
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